This study analyses long-term changes in temperature and rainfall in Jammu district from 1991 to 2025. The analysis uses linear regression, the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, and Sen’s slope estimator to understand climate trends. The results show a clear and significant increase in temperature over the last 35 years. The annual mean temperature has increased by about 0.043°C per year, which equals nearly 0.43°C per decade. Both the MK test and Sen’s slope estimator confirm this warming trend. On the other hand, rainfall shows a slight decreasing pattern, but this change is not statistically significant. Seasonal analysis shows that temperature is rising in both monsoon and winter seasons, while rainfall does not show any clear trend. Extreme-year analysis indicates that recent decades include the warmest and driest years. These changes suggest increasing climatic stress in Jammu district, which may affect agriculture, water availability, and overall regional sustainability.
Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, temperature trend, rainfall variability, seasonal analysis, climatic stress
Neesha Choudhary, Dr. Arushi Rana. Rising Temperature and Increasing Climatic Stress in Jammu District: A Trend Analysis (1991–2025). Indian Journal of Modern Research and Reviews. 2026; 4(SP1):330-335
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